Oh well….

I got greedy today and often do that but I don’t mind as when it pays off it can be extremely good to give the bank a boost occasionally! I stacked all my green in favour of goals in all games and despite some trouser moments (suspended markets) and shots on target etc, it wasn’t to be. Ho hum, only a small loss, and given the same circumstances I would do it all again just the same, which is my age old method for sussing if i made a trading mistake or just a trading loss. Good habit to ask yourself that after every trade. onwards and upwards

Trading

I have geared my bets to profit either way with Liverpool. I have green on over 2.5 and break even on under 2.5 but I have laid Liverpool so if they concede to Leicester which i expect, i will have a nice green there, but if they score again I will lose money on my liverpool lay (unless Leicester come back) but my under’s bet will then kick in for a hefty green as I laid so low at 1.09. It’s basically bought me a bit of free gambling rights on the game. I have just laid the draw on villa v westham at 1.7. It’s low risk and I …

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Sorry!

I had just published the last post when i noticed LIverpool scored. I have removed my liability but all green on over 2.5 goals so i need more goals, but no risk now. I have also laid Liverpool at 1.22. I will lay them again if they score again. I really do fancy Leicester lately. I also have a bet on them to win the premiership, 13-1 is just ridiculous for a team on this form, all because “Leicester” is not a famous brand name like Manure and Chavsea. 😀

Trade

Liverpool v Leicester – 60 mins 0-0. Leicester scored 3 per game in last 3 away games, I fancy a goal here from either team. Was going to LTD but its 1.09 to lay under 2.5 goals which is what i am doing, nice tasty stake can be afforded there. I will take some/all liability out after a goal, or possibly semi green up. not sure yet, but i do think a goal is likely on the stats although I have to confess i haven’t seen any of the game so it could end up being a mistake, but that’s trading and i like it enough to have a go.

Trade

AEK Greek SuperLeague – I have been burned many times by Greek games but I am throwing caution to the wind and ignoring past experience. Laid draw at 5. Hope the stats come good! Sporting Braga looks unsuitable for LTD from the off. But if its 0-0 or 1-1 at 70 minutes I might get in for an evens lay the draw. …

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Today’s betfair trading shortlist

Valencia – Very close call, especially at such a lovely cheap price. I am very tempted, but resisting the urge purely as I feel its one of those that could easily go 70-80 minutes before goals come, and thats a losing trade to us if it happens. It probably wont, but stats say its a very real possibility so i am leaving it alone. Man Utd – overpriced, no chance I will touch that. they are one of the most overrated teams on earth in my view, which does admittedly colour my judgement. Leyton Orient – overpriced Coventry v Oldham – stats suggest Oldham play their away games simply to …

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Friday 18th

Schalke tempted me but the goal stats are just not diverse enough, stats suggest what the odds don’t suggest, that it could be a closer game than I expect it will be, so leaving it alone. Vitesse – even more of a tempter, and much harder to ignore but I am forcing myself to ignore it. The Dutch games get a tad more harsh treatment from me as I have learned the hard way that no matter how strong these games look, they can (and often do) go very much the other way or just be dead dull affairs. Given the recent scores of both teams, I don’t think they …

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Laying the draw today

Nancy v Valenciennes – Stats are nice. Away team don’t concede too many so it’s not as strong as some trades, plus the home team have a habit of scoring late but given their recent wins against two very respectable teams (3-1 in each game) I think they should have this game wrapped up before HT, by 70 minutes easily, as far as the stats suggest anyway. …

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Lay The Draw Trading

I like the look of Man City. Will lay the draw at some point. either at KO, or 15-20 mins in. Probably the latter, nice to see a bit of the game unfold when the price is this high, if its slow, those odds will tumble quickly and offer a cheaper trade. Hull v Bolton – looks a great trade that one.