What a junk coupon…

Ok, this time of year we dont expect much, but Saturday’s can often find something worth having a go at. Not today though. Seattle almost made me click, but yanks can’t play “soccer” so that just doesn’t interest me to even look if stats exist! I SO nearly layed the remain vote, it was 1.18 on Betfair when I looked but I was going out and too busy to care much. But no question that was an ENORMOUS VALUE BET. 1.18 while not one single talking head could call it either way. It was a coin toss, everyone knew that, the result proved it. So what the hell is 1.18 …

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How many people are going to resist LTD Spain v Turkey?!

Much discussion today with friends (traders) about this. I haven’t been following the Spanish team much recently so I don’t even know much about their player line up. This is an international game which is reason number 1 why it’s a no trade for me. Stats won’t be easy to find or easy to rely on. Having said that, it’s the kind of game where I am pretty sure, if I am watching and it looks busy (in Spain’s favour) and it’s 0-0 at 30-45 minutes, I would probably be getting involved. I would be on reduced stakes as it’s not a purely stats based trade. I only share that …

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Isn’t this boring!

I do hate this time of year, it’s easy to get tempted into borderline trades as the boredom sets in while football takes its short break. But one of the most important lessons I learned about trading many moons ago now, is learning when NOT to trade. This is just as critical to success as knowing when to take a trade. I get itchy fingers but I don’t let them crawl across the mouse unless something clear comes up, and nothing is clear at the mo that’s for sure. There will be trades in the next week or so I think, a few have come up which were almost good …

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Did someone say there is a gamble on?

I can’t remember the last time I saw a horse price collapse that fast! It went……. and went….. Be glad when footie season starts again though! I will be away for around two weeks from Monday so there may be no updates during that time. Good luck to all and hope the weather stays this good for the whole of summer! …

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Unimpressive winner

Just a quick post as a couple of people asked me why the odds didn’t move on that trade. As the stats suggested, lahti scored, and not far off their exact statistical average for 1st goal scored. Nice. But the price didn’t move! Well it did, but not much, and certainly nowhere near as much as 99% of games do after the home favourite scores. Normally the odds would have gone out to at least 7, probably more like 8. But on this game it only went to mid 5s at best, then crawled down. Why did this happen? Here’s why… This game had very low liquidity (traded volume). It …

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A nice return…

Well yesterday was an interesting day. The first LTD pick was one of those nasty ones where a trader either takes it as a bog standard and fairly small loss immediately after the dog scored first, or wait it out a while in which case you could have taken a bigger loss, or if you waited long enough you could have netted a nice green when the favourite did its thing and levelled, then went ahead and won. Whichever approach a trader uses for LTD, this was one of those less that straight forward trades, but the stats proved correct and there was either green to be had, or a …

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Well here I am…

Sorry everyone. Had some personal troubles of late, and I am finally back and hopefully with a bang. Lots of sketches for methods and stuff I am going to publish over coming weeks and months. First time I have even looked at Betfair for a while now, here is what (little) interests me today….. Sirius v Trelleborgs – trades are thin this time of year on footie, but they do come up. This is overpriced but a good pick for hopefully a game with a good few goals in it, from the home side according to stats. I won’t lay the draw at that price (5.4) but I will see …

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