Saturday 20 August

Well after looking through a huge shortlist, I have decided to trade absolutely nothing today. It’s been a long wait through the summer but the stats are very thin on all major EU league games, and having looked at some results, even when there are stats to go on, they are generally very unreliable as an indicator of probabilities as there just hasn’t been enough football going on yet to form a good base of information for trading. So as itchy as I am to trade, I am going to have a relaxing weekend and maybe just do some racing. Football needs a bit more patience, hopefully next Saturday will …

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Friday 19 August

Le Havre v Troyes – Very very tempted here at a lovely price of 4. Le Havre have a good home record against their opponents, but I think I am 51% in favour of leaving it alone just due to the short amount of stats available still so early in the season. Its one of those where I would be surprised if the home team didn’t win strongly, I would expect 2-0 or 3-0, maybe 3-1, but I think it’s still the right call to miss this one out. There are going to plenty of trades coming through the pipework now. Manure v Southampton – I don’t even care about …

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Tuesday 16th August

Brighton game – (stats here) – This is a tricky one simply due to the lack of playing time and stats build up. On the face of it I like it a lot, but I am still not 100% sure if it’s still a bit early to trade these. Their 3-0 recent win at home against Notts Forest is good, and I suspect a strong home win here. Just not sure whether to keep powder dry another week or so. I will decide nearer the time this evening. nothing else of interest today …

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Monday 15th August

Varnamo v Angelholms – A nice priced trade at 4 to LTD. 6th plays bottom. Good form on both sides and good goal stats. Home team isn’t as prolific at scoring as I would ideally like, but they score just about enough considering the away team concede a lot of goals. Just out of interest, have a look at stats on this game – http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/08/15/denmark/superliga/aalborg-bk/esbjerg-fb/2238299/head2head/ – Another 6th plays bottom, and a much higher price to LTD, so it should be better right?! Nope. Look at the form of both teams, and last time they played with home team at home, the home team lost! This is why stats are …

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Grrrr!

I popped to the shops and got stuck in traffic. Got home and saw it was still 0-0, just as I clicked to lay the draw, it changed to this… annoying! but good to see the stats were bang on as far as likely scoring times were concerned. oh well, plenty more fish and all that …

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Footie begins!

Well it’s early days and stats won’t be too useful for a little while yet, but great to see some league games starting again, it’s felt like a long wait this year for some reason. The Olympics should help avoid some of the frustration for a while longer, although there are still going to be trades to be had. An interesting one, and a good reason to use my stats instructions as explained in my LTD book, is PSV v AZ today. I know of some people who lay the draw in any football match with an odds on favourite. I think this is suicide, even though some people say …

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