Friday 30 September

Not much on today’s card after all. Everton v Crystal Palace – I can see Palace being the Leicester of this year, no I don’t think they will win the league, but I think they could shock people with how well they could do. This is just commentary, not relevant to trading directly. This game looks a cagey affair but they both score late goals, so while it looks like an “avoid” for a bog standard LTD, I might be interested in laying the draw if it gets to half time without any goals being scored. That way, either team scoring would present a profitable trade. Sociedad v Betis – …

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Update

Well I know stats are the only reliable thing to go on in football, but having just watched a good half an hour of that game, I can honestly say I can’t remember ever seeing a more boring and pathetic game of football in my life! They can’t pass the ball to their own players, and the few shots I saw were worse than my wife could take! Utterly useless! So that was a small loss but one which taught me to probably avoid Finnish games in the future, if that’s anything to go by! Nice drop in odds on the 0-0 though, why on earth that was priced at …

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Interesting….

My site contains NO TRADING ADVICE OF ANY KIND! That applies to this post as well as all others! Thanks to Dom for this one…. Betfair exchange “next England manager” market states in the terms and conditions that an interim manager who completes 3 full international games as manager including friendlies “will be considered to have been appointed as next head coach for the purpose of this market and betfair will settle the market accordingly on that person” The FA announced yesterday that Gereth Southgate will be interim manager for the next 4 England games. Link Current price is around 1.3 (at time of posting this). Looking at the next …

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Wednesday 28th September

Very little of interest today but there is one trade. This is the kind of borderline trade I would reject on some days, there are pros and cons but overall due to the price (mainly) I think I will trade this one. The colour of the form card certainly looks peachy. The number of 1s on the left is a bit of a concern, although those are mainly against decent team, and a couple of strong results show they can score more sometimes. The away team card shows they have a good defence which is another negative, but also they rarely score any goals, very rarely more than one. Again, …

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Tuesday 27th September

Huddersfield v Rotherham – This one looks very nice at the cheap price of 4.1. Fairly decent home form (except for the late goals tendency), but the away team seems to enjoy letting in 3 or 4 goals per game away from home, so here’s hoping they do the same today. Nothing else of interest today

Ordering Problems and Credit Card Issues – LTD eBook

Just a note to the many people who have contacted me after being frustratingly refused by Clickbank’s ordering system. I have been in discussions with Clickbank for weeks about this problem, and they keep giving me a fairly generic auto response about “security” and “protecting me from fraudulent transactions”. However the truth is they are not protecting anyone from anything in most cases, these are genuine buyers with genuine credit cards, their system is too sensitive and I have been arguing this for a while as many would-be buyers have used their cards on the (very secure) Paypal system recently, so there is nothing wrong with the cards, it’s more …

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Update

Thanks to James Goteborg was an easy winner although smaller profit than usual due to limited odds movement which seems quite common in Swedish games. Telephone calls are a pain in the ar5e! I waited on the Norrkoping game, it went 2-0 and I was just entering my order to lay the winning team at 1.13 as an exit to my LTD trade. This exit leaves a lot more green if the other team comes back which I was obviously expecting. Just as I hit submit, the dreaded “SUSPENDED” message came up and I was a few seconds too damn late! That could have been a very nice exit as …

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Monday 26th additional trade

Thanks to a reader (James) I missed another one which he spotted… IFK Goteborg v Ostersunds. Here are the stats. If I was picking faults with it I can only find two small ones, firstly the 3-0 away win on Ostersunds form card, that was a fairly respectable team they beat strongly at home without conceding, but if they did that today it would still result in a winning trade so it’s a small negative. Also the tendency of the home team to score many of their goals late, that’s often a strong negative for me as it’s obviously fairly harmful to a LTD trade so I would often avoid …

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Monday 26 September

Slightly interesting day today, will get to that in a sec First things first, one LTD trade. Norrkoping v Djurgardens 6pm – Stats here – This looks a good trade. Home form is nothing short of awesome when it comes to scoring goals. Away team’s form is pretty dire. Priced in mid 4s, which I think is good value. if this was a Spanish game with similar stats it would be priced closer to 5.5 – 6 ! But what on earth is going on with this Romanian game? …… What I can’t understand is the price on Betfair. Home team are 1.58 odds on favourites, the draw is over …

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Second update

Well that was a very odd day! 1-0 to Wolves and I tried trading out once it got back into the high threes. Market permanently suspended which usually means Betfair have lost their feed to the game. I contacted them and they confirmed this. While talking it went to 2-0, and thankfully I fired up my Gruss trading software and the Betfair API (data connection) seemed much more stable than the web browser, so I got out for a decent green. Which reminds me…… every trader should have a BetDaq account and a few bookies accounts for these rare but dangerous situations where you can’t trade out. Betfair are notoriously …

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Update

Well a nice win eventually, Sandhausen were clearly slamming everything into defence to try to scratch out a 0-0 draw but when the favourite finally scored it was gloves off time. I laid under 2.5 goals @ 1.1 about 10 minutes before the first goal. That was a partial hedge, well more a trade in its own right but one which complimented and protected my LTD trade at least partially. So I left the lay on unders and traded out of the LTD trade at 1-0, then 2-0 came and I then removed my liability on the lay unders trade. At 90 mins the odds on under2.5 dropped to 1.01, …

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Saturday 17 September

Big shortlist today but I am still approaching the coupon with a lot of caution. Munchen Gladbach, Everton, there are many similar picks which I would be interested in later in the season but I am writing these off for now, and I may trade half stakes for another week or two, maybe even a month, however long it takes to get a decent amount of home and away form respectively for these games which hit the shortlist. Newcastle v Wolves – This is one of those which looks too good (only just) to ignore, but the recent away win of Wolves (3-1) against a very respectable team is a …

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Update

I don’t often do updates on the day’s trades, I barely have time to post the trades these days let alone the results but this time I felt I must, if only to show this lovely screenshot of the Norrkoping game, my only nailed on LTD for the day. It’s probably the best LTD scoreline I have ever seen in all the years I have been doing this, so it needs to be published I think! I just LOVE the little 87′ goal from the underdog, as if to gain back a bit of pride, hardly 😀 As for the others, briefly… Ajax, as the stats suggested, it was a …

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Sunday 11 September

Ha, I had a sneaky feeling Barcelona would lose. I had a cheeky £2 bet at 70-1 for “Any Other Away Win” which was one of those silly hunch things. I thought there would be a lot more goals but fancied Barca might lose that game. Only half right unfortunately so I lose the painful sum of two squid, but interesting to note that Barca were indeed beaten at home, I bet an awful lot of gamblers lost a lot of money yesterday, many people just back Barcelona no matter how small the price which is both stupid and dangerous as proven yesterday. To think they were priced around 1.1 …

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10 Sept

Barcelona – I was half tempted to lay Under 2.5 goals, if it was later in the season I definitely would as the price is now 1.74 which I think is cheap given their last win scoring 6 goals, with 8 goals in the game total! However not enough stats have played out this year to know if that was a one off, and even though its Barcelona and that is unlikely, it’s possible so I am resisting the trade this time.  

Update

Good old Bayern undid both me and their form card, until very late that is. 2-0 win, but all too late for LTDers. I did sneak a cheeky hedge by laying under 2.5 goals at the wonderful price of 1.02 and greened after the second goal, so not a bad day in the end at all

Update

Schalke game didn’t seem as lively as I would have hoped at the start so I got in quite a bit later when still 0-0. Hoping for a goal before 60 minutes or I will exit for a small red Midtjtlland v Esbjerg Back draw – As I expected it’s 65 minutes and still 0-0. That’s enough for me, exit time. Breda v Jong PSV – Stats stats stats. That game should never have been priced up around the ridiculous 5, and as expected Breda haven’t even scored and its over 70 minutes in! I didn’t trade this one, but I forgot to mention that when doing these, an away …

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Friday 9 September

Well yesterday’s Brazil game was a bit of a stonker in the end finishing up 3-0 to the home team. It also had a rare bit of luck for some of you, or at least one of you anyway! It’s nice when this happens, the first goal took 46 minutes to be scored but within another minute it was 2-0. Whenever trading out after a goal (from home or away team), I always allow at least 60 seconds for the market to settle as you can sometimes lose quite a few ticks from the wild prices jumping around after the game unsuspends after a goal. In this case, you would …

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