Thursday 27 October

I have come down with this damn virus again so I expect the next few days to a week will be limited time at the desk here, just so you know if I go quiet for a bit. Another strong course of antibiotics began today which perked me up enough to sit here for half an hour and I had a quick look at todays small coupon, and one thing is of interest so I thought I would mentioned it quickly…. Gent v Standard – Normally a no trade as they are sat next to each other in the league. However Gent are immensely strong at home, and their goal …

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Tuesday 25 October

Lots of cup rubbish today, the only two possibles were Eastleigh and Orgryte Eastleigh – not good enough to merit the high price (4.4 currently). There is an argument for a short lower risk trade at HT if it’s 0-0 or 1-1, but not sure if I will be at the desk so don’t know if I will bother Orgryte – no trade

Monday 24 October

Only two games I looked at in any depth, Djurgardens and Braga. Djurgardens is a definite no trade. Braga v Chaves has some qualities, they never lose to Chaves (historically speaking of course!) The price is cheap, the few goals Chaves score come at least half the time in the last 15 minutes, which offers a certain amount of protection to a LTD trade which obviously favours the home team and doesn’t want away team goals. The stats could definitely be stronger but they are good. The main negative is Braga’s recent form where they have struggled against some similar quality sides to Chaves. The overriding factor is the price …

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Sunday 23 October

Eintracht Braunschweig v Furth – Laying Under 2.5 goals shortly, around 1.45. Pure risk reward trade, I think there should be plenty of goals  but will remove liability after first goal if one comes, and wait for second to green my original liability, rest left to full bet until FT. Flamengo v Corinthians – Brazil is one of those countries I am a bit more careful with. This game looked like a trade to me at first, but on second thoughts I have decided to give it a miss. Away team scored heavy in last two games, I do expect a good home win based purely on goal stats, but …

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I am leaving a few hundred lay on U2.5 in AEK game, will remove liability after a goal and maybe some green, or may hold for a second goal, 15 minutes left and there is more than 1.02 chance of a goal I think, not much more, but more 🙂


Well Galatasaray was a great example of how stats are only useful “most” of the time, not ALL of it! I am glad I dodged that, what a messy trade that could have been. And this is so often the case in my trading experience with Greek and Turkish games. Maybe it’s pure coincidence but whenever I have traded them I often seemed to land on these ones, the ones which just go totally against the stats and probabilities, and massively against the gambling market and odds. Their stats come from real games, so it’s clear that I must just have a bad experience of them, but as today has …

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Saturday 22 October

Galatasaray v Trabz – Slightly tricky one this, tricky as far as deciding whether to trade or not I mean. Plus points: Fantastic green home form card Lovely red away form card (league games only), with not one single goal scored in last 4 games, but 15 goals conceded in those 4 games! Big distance between the teams on the table, a real mismatch Gala unbeaten at home this season Greek and Turkish games can have huge support at home games, especially for teams like Galatasaray Away team hasn’t won a game at home, score no goals on average and concede 2.67! Negatives: It’s Turkey! anecdotal evidence this, but in …

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Friday 21 October

Monaco v Montpellier – This looks good. It’s either a KO trade or a HT trade, or for some perhaps a half stake @ KO and add to it at HT if 0-0. However, it’s strong enough and cheap enough to be in from the KO in my view so I will be. Cork – This looks good, very good, but its pricey, and there is one big fly in the ointment which is that only 4 days ago they played each other and St Patricks put 3 goals past Cork which, if this was worth the price (5) I would say that would knock my confidence in a trade. …

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Small lay – this game is 0-2 currently. I have laid the away team. It’s not a super low risk job so need to be sensible, but the probabilities of a home goal (or home win even) are higher than the odds suggest so its a value bet for me


Crikey, it doesn’t surprise as much as I am sure it surprised many punters and traders alike. There is a method which I know quite a few people follow based on stats provided by a certain website online. That site gave the stats as: Chances of a Draw – 5%!!!!! Over2.5 – 75%!! I lost a bit but not much as the game was far too cagey to get involved earlier but I did genuinely expect a flurry of late goals, although it needed that one goal to break the 1 point each deadlock going on. That didn’t come and in light of that I am not surprised by the …

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Torn between LTD and U2.5 but I think U2.5 is the one to go for. It’s survivable if it ends 0-0, allows more time in the trade, and will offer more green for a sudden late flurry of goals, which I think will happen when someone breaks the silence, which will probably be liverpool based on form and stats.


Although this doesn’t line up for a LTD based on the odds, it does look a goalsy game to me so i may consider a LTD at 30mins if no goals (which I think is unlikely, hence why I wont enter til then if it happens) or if I don’t trade and somehow the game gets to 70 minutes ish or wenever the U2.5 price is around 1.2, I will be laying U2.5.

Monday 17 October

Eibar v Osasuna – Not great but if it’s 0-0 at 40 minutes I may have a LTD, hopefully after watching some of the game. Braunschweig v Kaiserslautern – I am a bit baffled by the price here, the stats look more like a 5.5 LTD than a 3.8?!!?!?!?! I must be missing something. time to read the team sheets and news feeds i think. but before doing that, i will mention what i like about it and, if i can’t find any negatives, this looks a definite trade for me. Obviously the form card looks excellent. The goal stats do as well. The home form is nothing but wins, …

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Sunday 16 October

Anderlecht v Lokoren – Liquidity is low, but if game its a half time LTD if game is level St Ettiene v Dijon – Stats suggest this is a 60 minute LTD bet, rather than a KO trade, in an ideal world. But I have a feel St Etienne could score earlier here against such weak opponents. The goal stats could be better, but the price could be a LOT worse. It’s at 3.7 currently so due to that, this is a KO LTD for me, maybe  for half stakes, adding another half stake at HT if still 0-0. I may watch the opening 5-10 minutes on half stakes to …

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Small lay

I am having a very small lay on Elche in the Zaragoza game. I do not expect to win any money, so it’s extremely low liability stuff, but the stats suggest Zaragoza should score a goal or two in this game usually anyway. The 0-3 scoreline is usually something to avoid as the game is almost certainly over, but if it came back to 1-3 or 2-3 there could be some nice green many times the liability, and I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening, even though it isn’t overly likely. One of those low risk but low expectation trades.

Other games

I have had an email from a reader ‘James’ asking me to take a look at a few others he spotted and give my thoughts or reasons I didn’t mention them, so here goes… “- Napoli v Roma – snag here is that they are very close together in the table but everything else from what I can see looks good. – Doncaster v Colchester – Sturm Graz v Ried – Basel v Luzern.” Napoli – This one I am not sure why but I didn’t look at. It was probably just missed in my fast skim down the page, the odds are under 4 on the draw which can …

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