Wednesday 30 November

At desk late today. i am laying the draw at Zenit at 3.25 odds (30 mins in). The only other game which looked interesting on goal stats was Sturm Graz, I liked the look of it a lot but the last 3 home games unfortunately make it too risk in case they are entering a bad patch of form. It’s a shame as I really fancy it, but I have to say no as I will kick myself if it’s a loser since there is a reason to reject it. if they go 2 goals down I will lay the away team, but other than that I think I will …

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Exiting

A couple of important points here… when exiting this method its important to manually enter the exit stake, not click Cash Out button. This is because there is usually a wide gap between the two sides of the book, between back and lay prices i mean, and that can hand back a lot of profit. This game looks to have bottomed out around 2.84 and quickly started rising then. This is how to see at what point the punters believe the leading team may now actually go on to win, if you watch the queues of money very closely you can actually see this market realisation take place, and that’s …

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BTD

Just a quick follow up to explain a bit more of what makes this an ideal back the draw… (and I am still trying to remember some of the rules!) Above – Very low activity = good for no more goals, or maybe one from home team. Possession 80% in Sheffield’s hands, makes another away goal (our only risk) look highly unlikely (not impossible of course!) Below – Walsall average 0.67 goals per game. Good. Concede more than 1, good. Score mostly in 1st half, good. Sheffield score most in second half, good, and score 1.56 per game, good. All in all, it shouldn’t fail should it? 😀 But of …

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Sheffield

I am backing the draw in this game now. Not a method I have had chance to explain yet, but basically : Stats suggest Walsall score very few away from home. Home team is much stronger on stats. So 2-1 ways to win. If no more goals, the draw price should keep dropping until around 60-70 minutes = green. If Sheffield score as they should = green (unless it happens immediately in next five mins). Obviously the risk is walsall scoring again. but thats an acceptable risk and this method has a high strike rate, i rarely do it as i am usualy laying the draw in games like this, …

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Tuesday 29 November

Sheffield – Not good enough stats to justify the price of 5 from KO. but half time will interest me if drawing Copenhagen – Opposite to above. The stats look good enough to justify a much higher price than 4.6, more like 5.6 which I am sure it would be if this was a game in a bigger league like Spain or Italy. Well worth a trade from KO here. SCR Altach v Reid – small league, big stats! The only slight downer is the late scoring possibilities, but going by who has beaten who and the goal stats, this looks ridiculously cheap at 4ish.   …

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Any other score?!

2-4 It was looking like being a case of PSV coming back strong, or trying so hard to do so that they left their goal open. clearly the latter is the case! Still, some recovered green and a small loss to end a day that could have been a small green day, no biggie either way really, but a good learning experience for some I am sure. Easy to get in a mess in games like this, as the stronger a team is, the more they push to win what should be “their” game, and this often does lead to results like this which look like major shocks on the …

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1-2

I could see that goal coming, but I was happy for either team to score as this has the feeling of one of those “any other score” type games! I traded out for small loss at 1-2, and may re-enter at 2-2, but it could go 1-3 which would offer a nice low lay on Oss possibly. Important not to get hung up on PSV winning as they may not, just have to follow the stats and protect the bank. Protecting the bank at the moment means getting out for a small loss and looking for a decent re-entry if one comes up, but not if it doesnt! . Just …

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Monday 28 November

Stuttgart – This looks like a game with plenty of goals. But the away team score too many goals to make this an ideal LTD from KO. Therefore I will leave it alone unless (hopefully) something odd happens, such as no goals being scored by HT (in which case I would LTD, also would at 1-1). Failing that, if no goals have been scored when the Over2.5 price hits 1.2 I will be laying that heavily VVV – hugely overpriced as a LTD but again, in play betting opportunities may come up, have to wait and see, but I wont be banking heavily on the home team as there could …

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Seville

game is approaching draw odds of 3. Might have a half price LTD if it hits 3 before any goals. Both teams will likely score in this game and dont much care who when getting in at this price. Typical I wasn’t home today, Monaco 4-0 win. hahaha, so typical! Shame newcastle played like a bunch of idiots! that is one of those incredible results when looking at the stats and league positions, but have to take those on the chin. Certainly glad I wasn’t trading that from KO at those prices, and I suspect many people did exactly that P.S. Empoli V AC Milan looks cheap at 2.7 ish. …

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Saturday 26 Nov

Well it’s a shame Helmond had to ruin the day (Friday) by scoring seconds after I exited my trade! the other two were goodens at least. I am away all weekend but did some early looks for Saturday and there are more than I have time to look at now but here are a few which caught my eye: Monaco v Marseille – Looks good, some prolific scoring form for Monaco. I would LTD from Ko there at the current price as that looks far too cheap to me Newcastle – bit pricey but could be worth a go even at that price. I would probably watch first 10-15 minutes …

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Jong Ajax concerns

Just a quick note and thanks to one of my readers based in Holland (I assume) who emailed to say : “A big part of this youthteam played yesterday international against Panathinaikos. I think they will be replaced by players of lower youthteam” This is definitely cause for concern if they do field a weaker side and it makes sense that they will. I still like the weakness in their opponents stats but will half my stakes just to reduce risks in case this does have an impact. Thanks to Henk 🙂

Friday 25 Nov

MVV v Den Bosch – This looks decent. Not as high priced as I would expect either. The only slight negative is the home team score a lot of their goals in the second half, but against these weak opponents I would expect goals in the first half. However all things considered I think the safest approach is to have half stake LTD at KO and add the other half at HT if its still 0-0.   Jong Ajax v Telstar – This also looks very good so this is a LTD from KO for me. Helmond v Sittard – same again, LTD from KO   …

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In Play trading

I am having a lay the draw on Gent v Braga. Not stats based, just based on the 2-2 scoreline and both teams clearly being up for scoring. I am going in around 2.26 for what i think is a good reward to risk, leaving it to the end of the game of course, unless i have some greening up to do. I am doing the same on Fiorentina v PAOK, if it stays 2-2 when the draw odds reach 2.5 …

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Tuesday 22 November

Sheffield v Bury – LTD at HT if score level (unlikely I know, but too expensive to take from KO) Fleetwood v Shrewsbury – LTD from KO – seems very cheap looking at the stats Barrow v Guiseley – LTD from KO. This is pricey compared to most, but the stats are incredibly strong so it’s a definite trade

Saturday 19 November

I don’t have much time here so can’t explain the many games I have rejected today. PSV away looks very tempting, but at that price and looking at their home goal stats, it suggests enough of an erratic pattern in their form to give it a miss. They will probably win 4-0 but at these odds and away from home, I think its just too pricey to take on. Genk – again too expensive. Its one of those which, IF i was watching and it was electric, I might take on at HT if 0-0, but probably best to leave it alone given the price at KO Everton  – HT …

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