Tuesday 31 Jan

Not much at all on today’s card. Cups and Internationals mainly. One game which looks worth a go if level at HT is Notts Forest v Rotherham. It would be nice if Rotherham could somehow magically prevent a goal before HT. Second half looks likely to see a goal from Forest I think. The only alternative idea is to wait and hope for a low unders or LTD entry at around 70-75 minutes if still no goals or level.

Thanks Lee – Egypt…..

Not sure whether this merits a “WTF?!” or not! The prices on Unders (0.5 and 1.5) suggest the market believes two goals are due here, which is priced at evens. Yet the draw is odds on before KO?! Weird. Without looking at any stats at all, there is a less than evens LTD here which can be held right up til the final whistle, I would be prepared to risk slightly less than my stake on A goal here at any time, greening after 1 goal if it comes. Well spotted that man 🙂 …

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Wednesday 25 Jan

Leeds v Nott Forest – This looks excellent value. Stats suggest best entry is half time, or 15 mins in at earliest. but given the very cheap entry before KO (which may rise I suspect) of just under 4, I would think a KO entry may as well be taken here. …

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Tuesday 24 Jan

Howdy all. Well I have been away for longer than originally planned, and some changes are underway here due to some family issues which means life will change a bit for me over the next few months. I am also working with someone about some strategy stuff, exciting but will be a long road. Worth every inch of the journey I think long term, but it’s going to mean I can’t spend hours each day discussing trades and stuff. I will do my best to publish my picks as usual, but beyond that I will be a bit quieter than usual for a while now. I hope to emerge with …

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Email problems

I have wondered why my inbox has been quiet the past few days. It turns out there is something wrong with my email setup so hopefully when that’s fixed the emails will flood in, but if you have emailed me and don’t hear back from me within a week, please resend in case it got lost in the tubes somewhere.

Sunday 8 Jan

Celta de Vigo – If level at 75 mins LTD or lay unders whichever looks best value Villareal v Barca – Again Barca are hard to oppose (although the other day showed they can be opposed!) but the stats tell a very different story to the odds. 1.55 on Barca is way too cheap, so I might oppose them here. not sure how, laying them is one decent option, as is backing the draw with a target in mind of xx odds or 1-1 late in the game. Just need to be aware (if backing draw) that it will drop nicely if VR score, but if they score again it …

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Saturday 7th Jan

I can’t trade today which is a pain as the coupon looks great. Family visits etc plus I think someone gave me back this bloody flu crap that’s been going round for months and I am sure I have had it twice already. Hope you all find a few good opportunities on what looks a tasty coupon 🙂

Friday 6 Jan

Small coupon again today for footie. Espanyol – Part of me thinks the price is so cheap it’s worth a LTD from KO, but I am resisting that idea just because I think it has a reasonable chance of being 0-0 at HT. A LTD from HT seems like a better option, or even safer, wait until 60 minutes and if level with a goal or two each, LTD, or if no goals, a lay of U0.5 or 1.5 depending on play and prices.   Mallorca – IF there is an early goal (within first 20 minutes) I will lay U2.5, trading out at HT if no more goals. If …

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Thursday 5th Jan

Nothing at all today. The only thing I looked into was the Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona game. The stats are way out of whack with the odds. A lay of Barcelona until HT looks like a value net in some ways, but opposing Barca is something I have never done and not sure I would today just to find one trade. Will be interested in how the game goes here though

Wednesday 4th Jan

Slim pickings today, a day off is in order perhaps. The Tottenham game will either be a goalfest or a cagey one. I am sure Spurs will badly want the win as 3 points will put them right up near the top, and they have great home form. On the other hand Chelsea has a great defensive set up and will probably do a good job of keeping Spurs at bay at least for a while. So it’s either a leave alone job, a wait and hope for ops in play or maybe a lay of under0.5 goals for 30 minutes from KO. This lay can be had for 1.09 …

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A lay of bournemouth looks in order, if trading out after 1 goal. a back of arsenal if waiting/hoping for two. odds suggest bournemouth have it in the bag, and i havent seen any of the game to know any different, but stats alone suggest opposing bournemouth at these prices 10-15 min LTD on stoke just after HT …

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Tuesday 3 January

Lots of cup games today so very little to choose from. Stoke v Watford – goal stats nowhere near strong enough for a KO LTD, but if its level at half time a LTD from 45-65 minutes would be my approach. Bournemouth v Arsenal – Again, it may well see early goals but I couldn’t trade this without seeing some of the game. Purely on stats I would be hoping for a level scoreline around 70 minutes for a LTD to run to the finish. Late goals look likely, so LTD or Unders ideas would all be viable if it’s level late on.

Monday 2nd January

Well I am glad I stuck to half stakes yesterday, will do so again for a few days I think, then hopefully things will settle down and stats will have a long overdue reliable spell! The unders lay on yesterday’s Chester game was a good one, amazing that Chester didn’t score but as expected, there were still 3 goals in the game and could have been a lot more based on the play. Today’s Doncaster game looks similar… Note that Stevenage are priced at 5+, which is value in my view, but I am not betting on them as I am not a flat better, not very often anyway. But …

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Happy New Year!

Well mine has started well, connection issues again. BT did a great job of installing my optical fibre connection, through a large tree and across through neighbours garden to the pole. The only problem seems to be, trees grow. Apparently this is quite normal. But optical fibre cables don’t grow at the same rate, so I now have a very stretched cable which doesn’t like strong winds, which we had last night. Its up and down, so I will have to get the plonkers out yet again. Also please note I am on travels for the next couple of weeks. I will be trading as and when I can but …

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