For many years I dabbled with various types of trading on Betfair. Sporting events which I dabbled in varied from the obvious football to tennis, boxing, rugby, golf, and horse racing. Of all the types of markets I tried to find my way in, I found horse racing to be by far the most infuriating and difficult to master!
Like all the best things in life, the more effort something takes, the more lucrative and worthwhile the potential rewards. Racing trading is no different.
There were various reasons why I found it so frustrating, those reasons only became clear after quite a few thousand quid down the drain trying out methods, timings, race types, and lots of other variables. The short way to explain my experience is simply to say…
In the horse racing markets, you can make a lot of money very quickly
…. and you can lose a huge amount of money even more quickly!
I knew there was some real gold to be found in these markets, despite my years of frustration. I had friends making extremely good incomes as full-time horse racing traders. I saw their P&L, their trades, I watched over their shoulder many times and sat in awe of the greens totting up on their trading software. But when I had a go myself, for a few months I would do amazingly well, only to blow a large chunk of it (if not all of it) with a few accidental clicks in wrong boxes, or more often by simply chasing a small losing trade, compounding it into a massive loss and before I took a breath I was dead in the water and thoroughly miserable too.
If you are someone who suffers from the old addage of “throwing good money after bad”, the racing markets can be an extremely dangerous place to be. With such huge amounts of money piling into these markets close to ‘the off’, you can have just about any size bet matched in the blink of an eye. That offers a lot of power, but also a lot of risk for the clumsy clicker or fat fingered one! If you have a lack of self-control or bad discipline generally (I did), you can click on a whim or due to a sudden rush of blood or a gambling urge, and before you even have time to think about what you are doing, say good bye to your hard-earned bankroll, time to look deep into the bottom of a beer glass! Thankfully those days are a long way behind me now, but even today they sometimes try to catch up with me again. I am constantly on my guard to fight off the evil voices and temptations whenever they pounce, and they do, even still today.
Taking a loss with a cool head is a learned skill. I don’t believe anyone who tries any form of trading can instantly just “accept” a loss without it hurting emotionally. That emotion leads to anger and a desire to fight back, to get “revenge” and ‘revenge trading’ never, ever, EVER works. I honestly don’t think anyone has tried to disprove this more than myself! Talk about bone-headed, and you’re talking about me! But I am not alone, it’s a human trait which we must all learn to cope with and control in ourselves. Some are definitely better equipped to control it than others, but for people like me who find it extremely hard to overcome, it’s the main obstacle to success in fast-paced arenas like the Betfair horse racing markets. Resisting that desire to ‘get back at the markets for taking your money’, being able to stand up and walk AWAY from the screen after a losing trade, is one of the most important skills in successfully negotiating the wild and wonderful racing markets. That was definitely the biggest obstacle to my success anyway, and I can only speak from personal experience.
There are many ways to trade on Betfair when it comes to horse racing. I have tried most if not all methods, as per usual, most are utterly useless and only serve to enrich the person selling the method. I am sure there are more than a few people reading this who know precisely what I am talking about and have paid at least some of the price I have paid to learn this over the many years I have been trading.
I now concentrate on just a few methods. These methods are extremely effective and profitable IF combined with a very disciplined approach by the trader. I can’t state that last point strongly enough. Discipline is something you can’t buy in an eBook or even from a £5000 training seminar. It’s within your character from birth and early life, it’s completely personal and individual, you either have it or you don’t, and most people don’t. Therefore it can only come with hundreds of hours of practice, practice LOSING that is, not winning. We can all be great at winning, but being good at losing, and not letting losses change your approach to the next trade, is what separates a good trader from a bad one. A good trader can do ok with a bad method, a bad trader can’t do much with a good or bad method, except hold out until the next big loss comes along due to a mistake or lack of emotional control.
Having tried and tested countless methods over the years, I now use only a handful of horse racing trading strategies in my regular trading activities. Some of these you may have heard of, but just like with my Lay The Draw strategy, my personal take on the overall strategy is what makes it work for me, after a lot of time and money spent fine tuning it to reduce risks, cut out potential losses, and capitalise as much as possible when things work out nicely. This is what makes a method “mine”, something I can personally rely on, even though the overall basics might be well-known to many other Betfair traders.
In my opinion there are two general types of trading strategies for horse racing:
- Shotgun Strategies
- Intuitive Strategies
The difference between the two is simple to understand. Shotgun strategies merely look for qualifying events, and they are all approached the same way, traded the same way in other words. Some shotgun type methods can become more intuitive as a trader tunes them for a better strike rate, thus improving and personalising the strategy for his or her own needs and objectives.
An obvious example of this is my Lay The Draw football strategy. Laying the draw in football matches is one of the oldest and best-known football trading methods of them all. But I don’t do it the same way as most, and this is why I can and do use it regularly, daily when the footie season is in full swing. The shotgun approach didn’t work for me (even though I know it can for others), this approach simply looks for qualifying games based on the odds (home odds-on favourite, draw priced 3.5-5.5, for example), and the trader just lays the draw the same way, with the same stake, in each and every qualifying game, hoping for a long term edge where these types of games usually see an early goal from the home team.
Back testing against football stats databases show that this can work well, but can also fail, seasonal changes in various leagues or teams can be enough to make it break even or worse, and that was never the type of approach I wanted to take in my trading. So I spent time (years) working out all the ways I could avoid a losing trade, and incorporating that protection into my analysis and trade selection criteria. This quickly became the difference between losing money and making money, and it’s also why I didn’t publish my own personal method for a long time, basically until I got tired of being asked by so many people to publish it! I felt quite protective of it, after all it was MY time and effort (and money!) which paid for my learning and tuning to hone it into something I was fully happy with.
Where horse racing is concerned, an example of a shotgun method might be the Lay All strategy. A short explanation of this method is to take qualifying races (certain tracks, number of runners, race class etc) and lay all (or ‘lay the field’ as it’s also known) for a fixed stake every time. I have had weeks where this went really well, and other weeks where it didn’t do so well. To be totally honest I never fully tested it and monitored results properly, and I have better ways to trade horses so I have never made the time to go into much more detail on it, but I certainly have seen it work in the past, and I know of many regular racing traders who use this strategy daily. The idea is that you want a minimum of two horses matched (laid), three ideally, as only one can win so any lay bets matched on any horse which doesn’t win provides a profit. Here is a video clip I took of a Lay All trade several years ago, I found it in my folders and it shows how nice it can be when getting 2 or in this case 3 matched….
As you can imagine, some tracks have closer finishes than others, as do certain race distances, and of course you need a decent sized field of runners to help that close finish take place when you’re trading this way. I would lay all horses at the same odds (1.7 or 1.4 usually, but some people do 2.0 or even 3.0) and provided the race finished fairly close between two horses, I would win some green. If three got matched I would get even more green. The shotgun approach is to do all of this in the morning on qualifying races, and wait for your P&L results in the evening. another approach is to lay all ‘in running’ which means watching a race and spotting a close finish about to happen, and laying all then very quickly. Software is a must for the ‘in running’ approach. I found I avoided some losing trades doing it this way, as if a horse is a mile ahead of the others, you know you don’t really want to be laying all there as there is only one likely winner.
While I admit I don’t use this strategy much these days, very rarely in fact, that’s not because I think the method is no good, I just have better options available and this means I have never looked more deeply into honing this method. I am sure someone reading this will do so, and good luck to you! Here is a picture of one day back when I was doing this, I laid all at two tracks (it’s important which ones) when there were more than 8 runners. You can see from the results that I was only using £10 level stakes, and laying all at 1.7, hence the -£7.00 losses when only one got matched. As you can see, you can have decent days with this method, at least I did a couple of years back when this was taken:
As you can probably tell, I was always more interested in a personalised approach to my trading, where I could learn a skill that would stay with me for life once I had it cracked. This means that every click is at my discretion, there is no “system” to when to click or when to trade, I wanted methods where I would sit and take a personal view, and trade that view. Approaching the markets like this allows a more fluid process, where I can change my mind at any point, walk away, or dive in, depending on what I see happening in the markets in front of me, whether that be on the TV (racing channel) or on my trading software charts. Just as with the football methods I use, this takes a long time, a lot of money, and a huge amount of patience to fully master.
The first intuitive strategy I mastered was ‘Scalping’. Just like scalping in the FX markets (or any other fast-moving market), this process looks for a very quick entry and exit where you can ‘safely’ steal a tick or two. It’s the opposite of “trend trading”, where you would be looking for big moves about to happen, and take a ride on the curve during that move, holding onto the trade for as long as possible until you are sure the move has finished. With horses, or more specifically with the enormous liquidity and volume in the horse racing markets, scalping is something anyone can have a go at, without worrying about whether they can get out of a trade or not.
Obviously you need races with plenty of volume, some Irish or Australian races can be low on liquidity, and you need to be in the last 10-15 minutes or so before the off usually, but if you stick to those rules scalping is “easy” as far as getting in an out, all that remains is learning how to make sure you make a green tick, and not a red one, most of the time anyway. What you need is either a very stable market where nothing is really happening but money is still flowing through, or you need a trend where you get in on the right side and immediately take a tick the other side as it moves through your exit price.
Scalping horses is enjoyable and relatively easy, but just as I said at the start, the horse racing markets can be frustrating and costly if you get things wrong. So even though scalping is seen by many traders as a “low risk” strategy, it can quickly burn you if you are overstaking or not aware of the indications that something is about to change in the market. There is nothing worse than putting a very large stake into the market, and just as you click you see a huge bet from a bookie or similar which drops the market several ticks against you! It takes a lot of practice, and as always, a large amount of discipline to GET OUT the second something goes wrong, even if that means taking 2 or 3 ticks loss to get out QUICKLY. Speed is everything with scalping, and it’s a numbers game. You want more winners than losers of course. Assuming you are in for a tick, and out for a tick (red or green), you just have to get a better than 50% strike rate and you are making money. For anyone thinking of trying this method, I would always recommend using £2 STAKES to begin with!
You are not looking to ride a trend with this method, but trend trading knowledge can be used to help pick the right ladders to trade, as I would prefer to have a good overall idea where the market is likely to go generally speaking, and of course markets can and do turn, but generally a trending market is easier to scalp than a non-trending market. In effect you are looking for reasons why the market might go up or down (if it does neither your scalp trade is safe anyway). If you feel the horse is a “steamer”, i.e. there is big money piling onto it to back it, you may only want to scalp by BACKING first, so if it does drop a few ticks in a split second, those are green ticks and not red ones! This takes practice and some knowledge of horse racing, and having the racing channel on the TV is a useful addition to your toolkit when trying this method or indeed when trying any method on the racing markets.
You can have as many as 20 or more trades in a matter of minutes quite easily. The trick is to stay sensible and not get greedy. If you see a market which is trending (I would usually just trade on the favourite or 2nd favourite) then just watch the ladders for a while, and when you have a feel for the movements, fire in a back bet (if dropping) or a lay bet (if drifting out). IMMEDIATELY place an exit bet (opposite) just one tick away from your entry. Don’t worry about greening up at this stage, you do that at the very end just before the off.
With this method, you really can have some fun while learning a lot about the markets, and making a few quid too if your strike rate is ok. Using trading software means that you can set your tick size (money per tick) and this means you don’t have to worry about playing with your settings, you just hit the back and lay buttons on the ladders, super fast, low risk, enjoyable trading.
You won’t make a fortune with this method, but that’s not the idea, the idea is to make a good few quid SAFELY and easily. Scalping horses before the off on Betfair is probably the most sensible first step anyone should take when they start trying to trade the horse racing markets. The longer your money is in a racing market, the more risk you face. This is especially try as you get into the last 5 minutes before the off. So the fastest entry/exit times are the best, always. Scalping takes some intuition and a lot of practice to do well. I have applied the same approach to football markets (only in the last 20 minutes before kick off) and even in tennis and other events too, as it’s a method which lends itself to any market so long as its stable enough, or in a reliable move where you can pinch a tick or two in a few seconds or less.
The longer you spend staring at the market ladders, the better you will become at spotting the safest times to “nick a tick”. You will learn the various little tricks like spotting prices on the ladder where the queue of money is very small, and you can stick an order in there and sit back and wait for the market to come to that price, quickly taking the opposite side before it takes your original order. The majority of the risk is avoided if you are LIGHTNING fast at exiting a trade. So if I back at 2.42, I am hovering my mouse pointer over the lay side of 2.42 ready to “Scratch” or take a matching bet to get out for break even. Reflexes are everything, so being as prepared as possible to scratch out is one of the keys to surviving with this method. If for ANY reason you feel it’s not looking good, just scratch it, there are a thousand more opportunities so this method is one of those you dump instantly for any reason, even if that’s just a “bad feeling” which is really the start of your own intuition learning curve happening, so listen to it!
Having said all that, I don’t do much scalping any more. It is great fun if you get it right when you are new to trading, but for the time spent staring at the screen, the rewards are relatively small compared to what can be achieved by trading trends, and once you can spot those happening, scalping soon becomes a waste of effort as you can make more money by riding a decent move for more like 10-20 ticks, or more in many cases. Scalping as a method offers newbie traders a few baby steps into the horse markets in my view, and this is the reason I have mentioned it. Many people ask me “how to get into racing trading” and scalping is a good way to begin, the risks are small (just like the returns, that’s trading folks!) but the self-control and intuition you gain is extremely valuable for all future trading in these markets, so it’s definitely not something I look down on, I just have better (but harder) ways to trade these days.
Back To Lay
This is a fantastic trading strategy which blows most others out of the water in terms of rewards and ability level needed. It is “easy” compared to most racing methods, as not much intuition is needed, but (and it’s a big BUT), you need nerves of steel and reactions like Bruce Lee. Why? Because this is an “In running” method, which means the markets are jumping wildly all over the place during the race, so you have to know exactly what your PLAN is before you get involved. You can’t make decisions ‘on the fly’ after the race sets off. Ok some extremely experienced traders can do that, but only after years of practice, and it’s its still fraught with danger. The only sensible approach is to know what you are doing before the race runs, so you have no thinking to do, thinking is deadly when the horses are belting down the home straight! You should be well out by then either grinning about your green numbers, or tutting at the relatively small loss you made on the (fairly rare) occurrence that it was a losing trade.
My biggest ‘secret weapon’ (and one of the reasons I really like this method) is because of the superb stats produced by the guys at PatternForm.co.uk. Any seasoned trader knows their website inside out, simply because to ignore the information there, especially if trading IR (In Running) would be foolish to say the least. They produce various different formats and representations of stats, with data available just by hovering the mouse pointer over any selected runner, which can give instant ideas of which horses make good candidates for this method.
The idea of this method is to do some research and find horses which are “confirmed front runners”. You want a horse which bolts from the stalls and runs off into the sunset, every time it runs. Some horses, in fact some jockeys and trainers too, prefer to run from the front in all races they are involved in. Mark Johnston is a well-known Yorkshire-based race horse trainer, and his horses are well-known to “Back To Lay Bandits” (:D) as they regularly run from the front. This isn’t reason enough to trade one, but it’s a good indication to look further at the horse.
When you find a regular front runner, you are aiming to back it before the off, and lay the bet off (trade out) during the race or “in running”. The logic is simple. The horse has a price to win the race before the race goes off. The chances/odds are based on them all starting from a level line, or stalls in many cases. But once one horse shoots out to the front, ideally gaining an “uncontested lead” (out on his own with no other horses alongside to impede his progress), that horse’s price will obviously shorten. So you backed at say 3.0, but when he is 10 lengths ahead in the first 5 seconds of the race, he could well have shortened in to more like 2, sometimes even lower. You then click to lay off your bet, and green up (software required), bagging a tasty green profit on many occasions. If the horse doesn’t do what we hoped, or doesn’t get a good lead quickly, you are OUT even more quickly for a loss.
This strategy is extremely profitable. It is also extremely simple to do, and probably the fastest way to make money trading horses as far as the time you are involved in the markets with your hard earned dosh. Nearly all of my back to lays last less than 10 seconds, most less than even 5 seconds.
The return v risk is superb compared to almost any other trading method in any market that I have ever come across. For a miserly £10 or £20 stake, you can often net £5-10 green very easily and very quickly. That’s a massive return for such a small risk. But don’t aim for that kind of return, just let what happens happen, and get out the second your horse has made a nice clear lead, as prices can quickly change especially if the horse isn’t strongly fancied to be capable of winning. You also want to watch for the whipsaw which sometimes happens when many traders are exiting their back to lay trade, obviously they are all then laying the horse, so the odds can quickly go back up, above the starting price, be warned!
Which leads me to one of the biggest risks of this method – GREED. All trading has this risk, but this method is far more susceptible to it than the others. Why? Because the race is running, adrenaline is high, and YOUR horse (the one you backed) is leading the race! Can you imagine closing your back bet on a horse which is leading a race, perhaps you are looking at a £200 green if he wins, and currently, he IS winning?! This is where ultra discipline is needed. Remember the TRADE (not gamble) is about profiting from the early lead, we don’t give a damn who wins the race. Yes it’s a tad annoying when (as quite often happens) your horse leads, and leads, and leads, and wins! But believe me if you start thinking about holding on longer and longer, you will start losing your stake every time, and quickly the method doesn’t work. You are in it for the first piece of action in the race, the horse hopefully bolts from the stalls, leads for a short period, and you are out with your profits banked nice and safely.
If I had to choose just ONE method, let’s say I was on a desert island with a laptop and only allowed one method to trade my way off the island, this would be the method I choose. Does this mean it can’t go wrong? Ha, of course not. I had one a little while ago where the horse was a nailed on front runner, it had front run all of its last ten races in a row. So I backed it quite heavily and the dumb donkey threw the rider off as they came out of the stalls, it was that keen to get away fast!!! Stake Lost, in a split second! It didn’t take many trades to make it back though, thanks to the great RvR of this strategy, but it was still painful to seen and I spent a while cursing the jockey telling him to get a grip, literally!
The main risk of this method is a TOTAL loss of stake as sometimes you just can’t exit or there is no point exiting if your horse gets a bad start and its odds shoot to 1000-1. So you shouldn’t need me to tell you…… Stake what you CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, divided by 20! In other words, if your trading bank is £100 and you CAN afford to lose that money (if not, what the hell are you doing trading with it?) then back front runners with a stake of £5 only. This is simple money management and will protect from any unlucky streaks of horses falling over out of the stalls and many other unforeseen events.
I will be putting together an eBook about this method soon, stay tuned for updates. This method is a serious bank builder when done properly, and the race/horse selection process is the key to doing it properly, so I will explain all as soon as I find time to put pen to paper.
This is something which really needs a large eBook all to itself, and that is actually something I plan to do soon. I can’t explain it well enough here to do it justice, but it is without doubt one of the most (if not the most) profitable way to trade the Betfair horse racing markets.
Just as with anything worthwhile, it takes a HUGE amount of practice to master fully. It also takes far more discipline and self-control than any other method I have ever tried, so it’s definitely not for complete novice traders. I would equate that to giving someone the password for a hedge fund’s trading platform, with no prior experience under his belt! It’s not for the feint hearted, it’s a brutal place these markets, especially in the last 5 minutes before they horses run. Huge gambles take place and when you are in a trend trade and you see a £200,000 bet go into the market against your position, you need balls of steel to sit and hold your nerve on the market direction! On the other hand, if you believe the bet is genuine (many of these bets are “spoofs” designed to frighten off nervous traders or push a market the way it doesn’t naturally want to go!) then you don’t need balls of steel, but instead you need a huge amount of discipline to close a trade you were happy with until then, which means often taking a loss or breaking even. This isn’t easy to do no matter how easy it might sound reading this.
Proper Trend Trading also needs a fairly advanced set up. You can’t just use the Betfair website in your browser like you can with my lay the draw football method. You need software, you need live video feeds running, and you need the racing channel on the TV so you can hear commentary, good and bad reports about horses, jockeys, weather, ground, trainers etc.
I will be producing a detailed eBook on trend trading as soon as I can, but I can’t rush it, it is a strategy which many people make a very handsome full time living from, so it can’t be covered with a 1 page wonder. It also takes a LOT of practice at small stakes, learning to absorb the various steams of information you need to take onboard before and during each trade, this means one ear on the commentary, one eye on the ladders, one eye on the chart patterns, and yes a third eye on the video of the horse you are trading on in case it starts playing up at the starter post, which happens often. So you need three eyes, I didn’t say it was easy did I? But boy is it profitable if you can master it. So I will definitely do my best to detail this strategy in full very soon. Sign up the email newsletter or Like my facebook page to stay tuned and get updated when this is published.
Early Trend Trading
Just a brief mention here as I am working on a piece of software I paid a programmer to write, which will select these trades for me and make the job a lot easier. If it comes off, it could be a nice little package for people who want to try it.
The method is basically a way of sussing out which horses are getting a lot of early money, a lot more than all other horses in their race, from the minute the bookies open in the morning. It incorporates information from some of the UK’s top tipsters (“top” meaning most popular, not meaning “best”!) which means punters reading the morning press will get a nudge in the right direction, and we can see that coming, which means we can predict fairly often that a horse is going to shorten in price throughout the day. In these cases we can back that horse in the morning as soon as our analysis is done, and often wait for several hours to lay it off nearer to the race time.
This is quite a different method to the others mentioned, and it’s a great one for beginners as it’s low stress, low adrenaline, and low risk if you monitor the trades or use automated stop losses via software. The strike rate is very good too.
I will go into this in more detail soon so again, stay tuned….